The Athletic has live coverage of the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft.
This is my third projection of how Sunday night’s first round of the 2024 MLB Draft will go — this is a prediction, not who I would take, but who I think each of the 30 teams will take based on the best information I could gather from industry sources and my own intuition on how certain scouting directors and GMs approach the first round.
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Even as we’re less than 100 hours from the first pick, no one seems to know what Cleveland is thinking, and rumors have them still considering six or eight or more names, which … come on, guys, it’s not like the draft is sneaking up on you. My guess is they’re looking at four names or fewer, and unless they go way off the board, I don’t think that decision has a huge impact on the rest of the top 10, as you’ll see below.
I’ll also note that if a player isn’t listed here, that doesn’t mean he won’t be drafted high or paid first-round money; once we get to pick 31, I think we’ll see a lot of high school players, especially pitchers, drafted with teams’ second and third selections who eventually sign for bonuses that are in-line with the mid- to late-first round. It’s no shade on a player to slide out of the first round as long as the number on the check is large enough.
For detailed bio information and scouting reports on all of these players, check out my Big Board ranking of the top-100 prospects in this draft class. And on Sunday night, check out our live blog for pick-by-pick analysis of the first round and more.
1. Cleveland Guardians: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
The last I heard about Cleveland had them still considering a very long — too long? — list of options for this pick, north of a half-dozen names, although I think Bazzana, Charlie Condon, and JJ Wetherholt may be the top tier, possibly including Jac Caglianone as well. The Wetherholt rumor has been flying this week with a $2 million discount attached. If you believe his hamstring injuries are not a harbinger of future durability issues, it’s a smart play.
GO DEEPERHe's an Aussie schooled in cricket. And he might be the top pick in the MLB Draft2. Cincinnati Reds: Charlie Condon, OF/3B, Georgia
The Reds seem to be looking at Condon, Bazzana, Caglianone, and Chase Burns, perhaps in that order. I could see them going Caglianone over Bazzana but not over Condon.
3. Colorado Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Everyone just assumes the Rockies will take a pitcher every year, but I’ve heard them on Caglianone as well as Burns and Arkansas lefty Hagen Smith. I imagine they’d take Condon or Bazzana if either gets here but haven’t heard much about the possibility.
4. Oakland A’s: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Kurtz may be sliding a little bit and the A’s could go another direction after they’ve been linked to Kurtz all spring. I’m hearing Braden Montgomery more here, and they could surprise with Wetherholt. I do think they go college bat but not Caglianone.
5. Chicago White Sox: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
I’ve heard the White Sox are leaning towards Caglianone first, and Konnor Griffin second, but if JJ Wetherholt doesn’t go No. 1, his main market starts here. I don’t think they’d take Kurtz even if he got here, but the other three guys going ahead would certainly be in play if any fell — it’s just not that likely.
GO DEEPERTop MLB Draft prospect Jac Caglianone thriving in his final act at Florida6. Kansas City Royals: JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
I’ve heard the Royals are leaning pitching if it lines up that way, and prefer college to high school; if they go prep, it’s more likely Bryce Rainer than Griffin. That said, Wetherholt getting here would be a gift, as he came into the year as the most likely 1-1 candidate (and could still go there). If he’s gone, my bet is it’s Burns or Smith, preference unknown.
7. St. Louis Cardinals: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)
The Cardinals could go Wetherholt if here, or maybe Montgomery, and I think they’d take either of the top two college arms if there, but probably wouldn’t take Griffin or Caglianone.
Hagen Smith is the top college left-hander in this class. (Richey Miller / Cal Sport Media via Associated Press)
8. Los Angeles Angels: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
I see a scenario where Caglianone gets here, as some teams have been scared off by his chronically high chase rates and some other factors like his previous Tommy John surgery. The Angels have only been linked to college players and of course the rumor is they’ll take someone they can rush to the majors this year — if it’s not Smith or Caglianone, it’s Burns or pitcher Trey Yesavage or outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt or even outfielder James Tibbs III. There’s a rumor going around now that Jurrangelo Cijntje, the switch-pitcher at Mississippi State, could end up in the top 10. The Angels seem like the most obvious fit if that’s the case.
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9. Pittsburgh Pirates: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M
Montgomery seemed to be cruising toward a top-five pick before he broke his ankle in the Super Regionals. Word is the injury isn’t a long-term issue, and he should go in the top 10 anyway, maybe still sneaking into the top five after all. I’ve heard the Pirates on James Tibbs III, Waldschmidt, Rainer, and Christian Moore as well.
10. Washington Nationals: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
The Nats are at the mercy of the board a little bit; the way I’ve lined it up in this scenario has all of the obvious college guys gone by this pick, so they’re looking at the next tier, with Yesavage, Waldschmidt, Christian Moore, etc., along with Griffin as a longshot (I doubt they’d go that direction again given 2022 first-round pick Elijah Green’s struggles).
11. Detroit Tigers: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (Scottsdale, Ariz.)
The Tigers are the first team where I’ve heard them attached to more high school than college prospects, notably Caminiti and Griffin. They may get their pick of the two.
12. Boston Red Sox: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson (Miss.) Prep
Griffin is a real wild card in the draft, with the tools to go 1-1 but real questions about how well he can hit pro pitching right now, especially since there’s no short-season league to send guys to after the draft (another genius move by MLB). If he’s gone, I think the Red Sox go college — Christian Moore, Waldschmidt or Yesavage.
13. San Francisco Giants: James Tibbs III, OF, Florida State
I’d heard the Giants with Caminiti all spring and that could still be the pick if he doesn’t go 11. Otherwise, it’s the mess of college guys for this range, including Tibbs, both Christian and Malcolm Moore, Yesavage, Waldschmidt, maybe Carson Benge.
14. Chicago Cubs: Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore’s a big model darling now, as is his brother* Malcolm at Stanford (*note: they’re not actually brothers), and both seem high on the Cubs’ list based on what other scouts believe. I think the Cubs are a dark horse on Benge and Cijntje. They’ve taken players like Vance Honeycutt in the past, but never this high.
15. Seattle Mariners: Jurrangelo Cijntje, BHP, Mississippi State
I’ve heard the Mariners covet Cijntje, and prefer pitching to hitting at this spot; if the latter is true, and Burns, Smith, and Yesavage are gone, there is no viable alternative among college pitchers to the Curacaoan left-and-right-hander.
GO DEEPERThe most intriguing player in this year's MLB Draft? Switch-pitching phenom Jurrangelo Cijntje16. Miami Marlins: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State
The new regime in Miami will probably take a very different approach in the draft, and teams around them believe they’ll go college, and whichever way they go it will be model-heavy. Smith, Tibbs and Waldschmidt would all fit that. I’ve also heard speedy high school prospect Kellon Lindsey has one or two possible landing spots in the teens and I suspect the Marlins are one.
Ryan Waldschmidt helped lead Kentucky to the College World Series. (Jeff Moreland / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
17. Milwaukee Brewers: Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
The Brewers’ draft strategy for much of the last decade has been “let other teams do weird stuff and take whoever falls,” and I can’t argue with the results, which got them Brock Wilken, who would have been a top-ten pick in this year’s draft, at the 18th pick last year. Waldschmidt, Tibbs, Smith, and Carson Benge would all fit that mold.
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18. Tampa Bay Rays: Theo Gillen, SS/2B, Westlake HS (Austin, Texas)
I’ve also heard the Rays a little with Benge and heavily with Illinois prep shortstop Tyler Bell, although he may be for their second pick rather than their first.
19. New York Mets: Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State
The Mets and Benge have been linked for months, and I haven’t heard anything to make me think they’ve changed their minds on him.
GO DEEPERCan MLB Draft prospect Carson Benge be baseball’s next two-way star?20. Toronto Blue Jays: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
The Jays may be the high men on Brecht, but he’s got one of the best arms in the draft and improved his command and his changeup as the season went on. I’ve heard them a little with the next tier of college bats like Tommy White and some of the other Tennessee kids (and Moore if he falls here).
GO DEEPERTwo-sport athlete Brody Brecht traded football for a shot at MLB stardom21. Minnesota Twins: Seaver King, SS/OF, Wake Forest
I’ve also heard them with Kaelen Culpepper — this is probably his ceiling — and the group of college bats I have going in the teens. They might also be a fit for Vance Honeycutt.
22. Baltimore Orioles: Kellon Lindsey, SS, Hardee HS (Wauchula, Fla.)
Lindsey’s market probably starts here. Beyond him I’ve heard Baltimore more with college bats, including King, Honeycutt, and Tommy White.
23. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ryan Sloan, RHP, York Community HS (Elmhurst, Ill.)
The Dodgers are linked to all kinds of players because people believe that the Dodgers just think they can take any player, sprinkle Dodger Dust™ on him, and make him a star. I don’t think the Dodgers actually think that, though. Actual names I’ve heard with them include Lindsey, William Schmidt, and, somewhat improbably, Tommy White. I heard they’re off Honeycutt.
24. Atlanta: Carter Johnson, SS, Oxford HS (Ala.)
Atlanta might be Brecht’s floor, and I’ve heard them with the cluster of high school pitchers in play anywhere from here to the top of the second round — Sloan, Kash Mayfield, Schmidt, and particularly Braylon Doughty. They’re also a possible fit for Lindsey. Beyond Brecht, I haven’t heard them specifically with any college guys.
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25. San Diego Padres: Tyson Lewis, SS, Millard West HS (Omaha, Neb.)
The Padres may be more inclined to consider a college player here than they have in some time, although it would require the right guy to be available (maybe King? Benge?). I’m not ruling out them taking another high school arm like Mayfield or Sloan, but they’re at least casting a wider net this year. Other prep bats possibly in play are Lindsey and Wyatt Sanford.
26. New York Yankees: Tommy White, 3B, LSU
I’ve heard the Yankees on an incoherent list of players, so some of it’s not right, clearly. The group includes Blake Burke, Dakota Jordan, Carter Johnson, and Luke Dickerson, although Dickerson and Jordan might be better bets for Round 2. The Yankees have favored hard-contact guys the last few years in the draft and all of these names grade out highly in that department, especially Burke, with a hard-hit rate of 60 percent for Tennessee this spring.
27. Philadelphia Phillies: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
I’ve heard the Phillies a ton with Lindsey, some with the usual set of high school arms even though the Phils’ last two first-rounders were position players, and a little with Lewis. If they go college, it’ll be for someone with an elite tool or two like Honeycutt or Brecht.
28. Houston Astros: Walker Janek, C, Sam Houston State
I’ve primarily heard Houston with college bats the last few weeks, which could be Janek, Malcolm Moore, White, or Burke, while on the prep side I’ve heard them a bunch with Lewis and Johnson.
29. Arizona Diamondbacks: Kyle DeBarge, SS, Louisiana-Lafayette
Arizona picks again at 31, the pick they received when Corbin Carroll won Rookie of the Year, and pick 35, a Competitive Balance round pick, so while I’ve heard that high school outfielder Slade Caldwell doesn’t get past them, they could try to play the board and slide him to either of the later picks. I’ve also heard them with Virginia’s Griff O’Ferrall.
30. Texas Rangers: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
I’d heard previously that Gillen doesn’t get past them, and lately they’ve been linked to some high school arms, particularly Doughty and Mayfield.
(Photo illustration by Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; From left to right: Charlie Condon, Jac Caglianone, Travis Bazzana: Stew Milne / Associated Press; John Byrum and Jeff Moreland/ Icon Sportswire / Getty Images)
